Welcome to Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2017, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (3): 135-142.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb16050036

Special Issue: 农业气象

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Disaster Trend of Crops Affected by Extreme Climatic Events in Xinjiang During 1978-2014

  

  • Received:2016-05-06 Revised:2016-10-12 Accepted:2016-10-14 Online:2017-02-10 Published:2017-02-10

Abstract: The paper aims to reduce the cost brought from the extreme climatic events. Based on the disaster theory and with the help of the trend analysis of mathematical statistics, correlation analysis, multiple regression etc, so as to analyze the influences which the Xinjiang crops suffered disaster and damage because of the extreme climatic events such as drought, flood, hailstorm, chilling damage etc during 1978-2014. Meanwhile, using the relevant data obtained from the Xinjiang crops production inputs-outputs and expanded Cobb-Douglas production function (C-D) for establishing non-linear model to reveal the influences of different input elements on crop output. The results indicated that: (1) the drought, flood, hailstorm, chilling damage etc extreme climatic events caused the Xinjiang crops suffered disaster, no matter was damaged area or disaster area, and showed the rising trend with different range in the past 37 years; (2) the direct economic loss of Xinjiang crops was 9.3772 billion RMB due to the all kinds of meteorological disaster, among in which the drought loss accounted for 29.7% of the total meteorological disaster, and the freezing accounted for 14.64%, others accounted for 28.4%; (3) the factors which affected the crops output unit area in Xinjiang, the disaster rate was the highest factor affected crops output, the crops output in unit area would reduce 3.37% when the disaster rate increased 1%.