Welcome to Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2016, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (32): 193-199.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb16060003

Special Issue: 马铃薯

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An Empirical Study on Risk Zonation of Potato Production in China:Based on the Data of 19 Main Potato Producing Provinces

Zhou Lei1, Ma Gaiyan2, Peng Chanjuan1, Xu Xuerong1   

  1. (1College of Economics, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002; 2Jinshan College, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002)
  • Received:2016-06-01 Revised:2016-07-20 Accepted:2016-07-25 Online:2016-11-15 Published:2016-11-15

Abstract: In order to explore the distribution characteristics of potato production risk and the suitable planting areas in China, data of 19 Chinese potato producing provinces from 1992 to 2013 were used to conduct the study. Taking natural, market and technology risks into consideration, 9 variables including yield reduction rate, variable coefficient, probability of yield reduction rate less than 10% and 30%, planting scale index, etc. were chosen to construct the index system of risk zonation. Non parametric kernel density method was used to calculate the risk occurrence probability, and clustering method was used to conduct the empirical analysis of risk zonation. The results showed that potato planting area in China was divided into five risk areas. Potato production was higher, medium and lower in the northern region, southern region and central and western regions of China, respectively. Different potato varieties, temperature and precipitation difference in north and south could be the causes. The results can provide decision making basis for the adjustment of potato production distribution and prevention of natural disasters in the future.