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Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2017, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (16): 158-164.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb16060057

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Production Risk Evaluation of Main Crops in Jilin

  

  • Received:2016-06-12 Revised:2016-09-26 Accepted:2016-10-17 Online:2017-06-08 Published:2017-06-08

Abstract: This study aims to understanding main crops’production risk in Jilin Province, and provide a reference for stabilizing food production and ensuring national food security. Linear sliding average method and non-parametric information diffusion model were used to evaluate production risk of soybean, rice and maize at county level. The results showed that different crops had different production risks, and the risk degree of per unit area yield was in a decreasing order of soybean, maize and rice. Areas had higher production risks mainly distributed in northwest Jilin, followed by southeast Jilin, and lower risks were mainly found in central Jilin. Per unit area yield loss ratio of soybean, rice and maize over 30% was small in Jilin Province.