Abstract: This research aims to predict short-term precipitation and cope with climate change in Heze, and provide both technical and theoretical support for rational utilization of climate resources, industrial layout optimization and government guidance on agricultural production. According to the surface meteorological observation data of 8 counties and 1 district of Heze in 1971-2010, the authors studied spatial distribution, change trend, precipitation mutation, and precipitation assurance of different counties by using unary linear regression analysis, M-K test and precipitation assurance method. The results showed that: the mean annual precipitation presented a stepped declining trend in Heze from southeast counties to northwest counties, and an obvious rising trend with the time and the rise rate was 16.5 mm/10 a; UB curve was above 0 from 1971 to 2001 and the precipitation showed a rising trend significantly; meanwhile, UB curve was below 0 after 2002 and the precipitation showed a declining trend; there was an intersection point in 2003 of UF curve and UB curve between two reliability lines, indicating that 2003 was the mutation time point. When precipitation assurance was the same, the mean annual precipitation of Heze showed an increasing trend from north to south.