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Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2017, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (22): 101-106.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb16080021

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The 60 min Maximum Precipitation in Shanxi: Spatial Distribution and Return Period Estimation

  

  • Received:2016-08-04 Revised:2016-12-22 Accepted:2016-12-23 Online:2017-08-21 Published:2017-08-21

Abstract: The paper aims to study the rules of the extreme precipitation events under global climate change. Based on the 60 min maximum precipitation data in Shanxi from 1981 to 2012, the authors analyzed the spatial distribution characteristics of the 60 min maximum precipitation and return period estimation for 50 or 100 years in Shanxi by extreme value analysis, Gumbel distribution function fitting and other methods. The results showed that: the probability distribution of the maximum precipitation in Shanxi was skewed bell-shaped; the spatial distribution characteristics of the 60 min maximum precipitation was closely related to the geographic location and terrain; and the estimated value of 50-year return period of the 60 min maximum precipitation showed high consistence with that of 100-year return period in their spatial distribution patterns; the maximum value areas were mainly distributed in southeastern Shanxi.