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Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2017, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (26): 152-158.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb16100054

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Fluctuation of Grain Production in Liaoning Province Since 1978: Periodic Characteristics and Influencing Factors

  

  • Received:2016-10-14 Revised:2017-03-24 Accepted:2017-03-24 Online:2017-09-19 Published:2017-09-19

Abstract: The study characteristics and genetic analysis of the law of the fluctuation of grain production, to ensure food security, stability, food production is of great significance. Liaoning province is located in the south of northeast China, is a grain of rice, corn and other food crops, as one of the 13 major grain-producing areas in China and important commodity grain production base, over the years, for the effective protection of our country has made a significant contribution to the food security, its food production fluctuation has significant effect on China''s grain production and supply. Liaoning province grain production since the reform and opening up has experienced a tortuous process of periodic, so the fluctuations of grain production in liaoning province since the reform and opening up are studied, in-depth analysis of the law, characteristics and influence factors, can not only clarify its law of development, and to ensure economic and social development of the growing demand for food. First of all, the basic situation of food production in liaoning province from 1978 to 2014 is analyzed, through the macro data such as liaoning statistical yearbook, the total grain output in liaoning province from 1978 to 2014, the grain sowing area and unit area grain yield several indicators to analyze statistical description, and the grain yield per unit area in liaoning province and the country of comparative analysis, observe the change rule of grain production in liaoning province since the reform and opening up. Second, according to the relevant data of grain production in liaoning province from 1978 to 2014, using the method of residual analysis of the characteristics of grain production fluctuation, the results show that: (1) the higher volatility index of grain production in liaoning province in 1978-2014, volatility index between - 20.13% - 20.13%; Volatility is larger, the average volatility of 19.01%. (2) according to the fluctuation cycle theory, the 1978-2014 food production in liaoning province is divided into 11 fluctuation cycle and fluctuation cycle for an average of three years, and the fluctuation of grain production in liaoning province belongs to clear the typical fluctuation; And the empirical analysis to determine the main factors affecting grain production fluctuation, through the regression results of grain production in liaoning province from 1985 to 2014, it is concluded that grain production fluctuation is composed of inundated area of grain, find the common effect, the area sown to grain, which inundated area on the fluctuation of grain output, the most obvious and effective irrigation area, the area of machine-cultivated and last year was not significant; the influence of grain purchase prices Finally combining with the actual situation of grain production in liaoning province, and put forward: (1) completes the general land use planning, ensure the area sown to grain. (2) to strengthen the construction of farmland water conservancy facilities and water-saving agriculture, increase the ability to withstand natural disasters. (3) the optimization of fertilizer input, the output of grain quality stable food production, such as reducing food production fluctuation of targeted countermeasures.