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Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2018, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (9): 152-156.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb17100116

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Correlation Between Urbanization and Carbon Emissions in Henan: A Dynamic Econometric Analysis

  

  • Received:2017-10-31 Revised:2017-12-19 Accepted:2018-01-15 Online:2018-03-21 Published:2018-03-21

Abstract: From the perspective of urbanization, based on the time series data from 1978 to 2015 in Henan Province, the dynamic relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions was discussed by cointegration test, Granger causality analysis and dynamic simulation analysis. The results showed that there was a high degree of positive correlation between urbanization and carbon emissions in Henan Province, and there was a long-term co-integration relationship between the two groups. In the long term, the carbon footprint increased by 1.52% for every 1% increase of urbanization. Second, there was a single Granger causality between urbanization and carbon emissions in Henan, it meant that the increase of urbanization was the cause of increased carbon emissions, but carbon emissions were not the factors for the increased level of urbanization. Finally, through analysis of dynamic simulation, the urbanization in Henan had a positive impact on carbon emission, and there was a certain lag, and with the development of urbanization, this impact rose to a certain extent then became gentle, and played a certain inhibition role in growth. So, in the future long- term construction of urbanization, its engine role in the energy-saving emission reduction should be promoted, to construct low-carbon cities.