Study on Precipitation Satisfaction Degree and Drought Risk Degree of Crop Growing Season in Southern Hebei Province

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2022-0362

Abstract

Abstract:

By exploring the change of precipitation and its satisfaction degree and drought risk degree in the growing season of crops in southern Hebei Province, the study aims to provide reference for agricultural industrial structural adjustment, avoidance of drought risk, and agricultural production management. Based on the precipitation and temperature data of representative meteorological monitoring stations in Handan, Xingtai and Hengshui from 1971 to 2020, the climate diagnostic analysis method was adopted to study the satisfaction degree of precipitation to crop growing season, the characteristics of drought change and the degree of drought risk by using the integral moisture index and dry and wet index. The results showed that precipitation in the growing season of crops in the southern part of Hebei Province showed an increasing trend from 1971 to 2020, with a linear increase of 38.9 mm. Precipitation satisfaction and dry and wet index in crop growing season showed increasing trends, with the linear increase of 12.5% and 0.18, respectively. The drought risk of crop growing season showed a significantly decreasing trend, and abruptly increased in 2002/2003. After the mutation, the maximum drought risk decreased by 8.9 percentage points, and the annual average drought risk decreased by 12.6 percentage points. The drought occurred mainly in April to May (seeding stage to seedling stage), and the drought degree decreased by about 1 grade. The drought frequency was high in southern Hebei Province from 1971 to 2020, and the increase of precipitation in April and May played a certain role in alleviating the drought risk in spring, but there was still the probability of a major drought every 2 to 3 years. Therefore, it is imperative to adjust the agricultural structure.

Key words: crop growing season, precipitation, integral moisture index, wet and dry index, drought risk degree, southern Hebei

LI Ruisu. Study on Precipitation Satisfaction Degree and Drought Risk Degree of Crop Growing Season in Southern Hebei Province[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2023, 39(12): 75-80.

Figures/Tables 8

References 21

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指标	湿润	正常	轻旱	中旱	大旱
K值	K≥1.1	1.1>K≥0.9	0.9>K≥0.7	0.7>K≥0.5	K<0.5
F值	K≥0.9时，F=0		F<50%	70%>F≥50%	100%>F≥70%

指标	湿润	正常	轻旱	中旱	大旱
K值	K≥1.1	1.1>K≥0.9	0.9>K≥0.7	0.7>K≥0.5	K<0.5
F值	K≥0.9时，F=0		F<50%	70%>F≥50%	100%>F≥70%

月尺度	4月	5月	6月	7月	8月	9月
平均值/mm	23.5	37.5	52.2	158.9	119.1	46
标准差/mm	22.3	30	39.9	101.7	87.4	29.5
最大值/(mm/年份)	124.1/2018	119.2/2006	219.1/1971	435.2/2016	380.0/1996	122.8/1983
最小值/(mm/年份)	0.0/1978	1.1/2019	1.3/2010	25.9/2015	18.6/1997	0.7/1998
极差/mm	124.1	118.1	217.8	419.3	361.4	122.1
倾向率/(mm/10 a)	5.529	4.363	-2.641	1.24	-1.009	0.297
序列相关(r)	0.361^**	0.212	-0.096	0.017	-0.0173	0.014

月尺度	4月	5月	6月	7月	8月	9月
平均值/mm	23.5	37.5	52.2	158.9	119.1	46
标准差/mm	22.3	30	39.9	101.7	87.4	29.5
最大值/(mm/年份)	124.1/2018	119.2/2006	219.1/1971	435.2/2016	380.0/1996	122.8/1983
最小值/(mm/年份)	0.0/1978	1.1/2019	1.3/2010	25.9/2015	18.6/1997	0.7/1998
极差/mm	124.1	118.1	217.8	419.3	361.4	122.1
倾向率/(mm/10 a)	5.529	4.363	-2.641	1.24	-1.009	0.297
序列相关(r)	0.361^**	0.212	-0.096	0.017	-0.0173	0.014

指标	4月	5月	6月	7月	8月	9月	4—9月
大旱/%	42.0	38.0	36.0	14.0	24.0	34.0	4.0
中旱/%	10.0	12.0	8.0	14.0	12.0	24.0	10.0
轻旱/%	10.0	4.0	20.0	6.0	14.0	12.0	12.0
K值倾向率/10 a	0.18	0.10	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.04
序列相关	0.322	0.178	-0.115	-0.010	-0.024	0.014	0.178