Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Climatic Potential Productivity and Response Characteristics of Grain Yield in Yunnan Province from 1978 to 2019

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2022-0441

Abstract

Abstract:

Yunnan Province is a typical area of rain-fed agriculture in China. In the context of global warming, it is of great significance to explore the temporal and spatial evolution of climate potential productivity and the response of grain yield in Yunnan Province, which is important to the agricultural development in rain-fed agriculture regions. Based on the Miami and Thornthwaite Memorial model, this paper used the meteorological data from 1978 to 2019 to study the temporal and spatial evolution of climatic potential productivity and the response of grain yield in Yunnan Province by using climate tendency rate, M-K test and inverse distance weight interpolation. The results showed that in the time series, the average temperature of Yunnan Province from 1978 to 2019 was 16.3°C, which showed a significant upward trend; the multi-year average of precipitation in Yunnan Province from 1978 to 2019 was 1098.1 mm, which showed a insignificant downtrend. The annual mean value of y_t, y_r and y_e was 1953, 1550 and 1477 kg/(hm²·a), respectively, of which y_t and y_e showed fluctuating upward trend, and y_r showed a fluctuating downward trend. In terms of spatial distribution, the distribution trend of temperature and precipitation were similar to those of y_t and y_r, both showing a decreasing trend from southwest Yunnan to northwest Yunnan, and the spatial distribution of y_e was more similar to that of y_tthan y_r, with the spatial range of 843-1861, 1065-2470 and 980-2287 kg/(hm²·a), respectively. The overall utilization rate of climate resources showed a significant upward trend, increasing from 16.94% in 1978—1987 to 31.71% in 2018—2019, with an average growth rate of 3.66% of per decade. In the context of global climate changes, Yunnan Province showed a warm and dry trend with a significant increase in climate resource utilization, where precipitation was the main factor limiting climate potential productivity.

Key words: Yunnan Province, Miami model, Thornthwaite Memorial model, climatic potential productivity, climate resource utilization, temporal and spatial evolution

LI Taohui, ZHANG Wenxiang, LV Aifeng, LIU Yonghao. Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Climatic Potential Productivity and Response Characteristics of Grain Yield in Yunnan Province from 1978 to 2019[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2023, 39(17): 55-63.

Figures/Tables 8

References 30

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年份	粮食单产/(kg/hm²)	标准气候生产潜力/[kg/(hm²·a)]	气候资源利用率/%
1978—1987	2475.81	14613.26	16.94
1988—1997	3104.87	14668.21	21.17
1998—2007	3526.86	14927.48	23.63
2008—2017	4256.69	14707.20	28.94
2018—2019	4515.39	14240.73	31.71

年份	粮食单产/(kg/hm²)	标准气候生产潜力/[kg/(hm²·a)]	气候资源利用率/%
1978—1987	2475.81	14613.26	16.94
1988—1997	3104.87	14668.21	21.17
1998—2007	3526.86	14927.48	23.63
2008—2017	4256.69	14707.20	28.94
2018—2019	4515.39	14240.73	31.71