Abstract:

Based on the 1996 and 2006 TM and ETM images of arid and desert grassland in the Gonghe Basin and the field investigations there, supported by RS and GIS methods, this paper monitored desertification trend from 1996 to 2006, and predicted yearly desertification statue from 2007 to 2016 using Markov process model. The results showed that in the last ten years the desertification had an decreasing trend, in which the whole desertified area decreased from 7565.15 km2 to 7419.60 km2, but moderate and very serious desertification increased from 1071.28 km2 and 858.78 km2 to 1308.987 km2 and 903.07 km2, while slight and serious desertification reduced from 4933.26 km2 and 701.82 km2 to 4656.68 km2 and 550.87 km2 respectively from 1996 to 2006. The prediction indicated that the areas of slight and serious desertification would be decreased, while the moderate and very serious desertification would have a increasing trend. By the end of 2016, the very serious desertification would be 928.65 km2, or increased 24.89 km2 compared with 2006. This pointed out that desertification in Gonghe Basin would be still serious, and some countermeasures must be taken to control and lighten desertification.