Abstract:

Using the localized crops growth model analyzes the change of the all growth periods and yields for double rice in Hunan Province and Hubei Province under the B2 scene. It provided the scientific basis on food security and the influence of dealing with climate change on agricultural production in China. Using the meteorological element predicted value under the B2 scenarios and the crops growth model, analyzed the potential influence of growth stages and yields for double rice in Hunan Province and Hubei Province from 2011 to 2050. The results showed that: all growth periods of irrigation for double rice in Hunan Province and Hubei Province from 2011 to 2050 would reduce for 1-7 days than from 1961 to 1990. The yield would reduce for 5%-12%. All growth periods for early rice in Hunan Province and Hubei Province from 2011 to 2050 would reduce for 1.5-4.5 days than from 1961 to 1990. The yield would reduce for 7%-14%. All growth periods for late rice in Hunan Province and Hubei Province from 2011 to 2050 would reduce for 1-3 days than from 1961 to 1990. The yield would reduce for 2%-10%. The difference between all growth periods of rain-fed for double rice in Hunan Province and Hubei Province from 2011 to 2050, and all growth periods of irrigation wouldn’t be big. But difference between yield of rain-fed for double rice in Hunan Province and Hubei Province from 2011 to 2050, and yield of irrigation would be big. The yield of rain-fed for double rice in Hunan Province and Hubei Province from 2011 to 2050 would reduce for 9%-21% than the yield of irrigation. The yield of rain-fed for early rice in Hunan Province and Hubei Province from 2011 to 2050 would reduce for 3%-14% than the yield of irrigation. The yield of rain-fed for late rice in Hunan Province and Hubei Province from 2011 to 2050 would reduce for 13%-33% than the yield of irrigation. The preliminary analysis indicated that the growth stages and yield for double rice in Hunan Province and Hubei Province would reduce under the B2 scenarios. Especially the decline of the yields of rain-fed for late rice would be big. We must positively deal with the influence of agricultural production on climate change.