Abstract:

The quantity of cultivated land is the main element of the grain production capacity, and farmland protection is the key for food security and livelihood in three gorges reservoir area. This paper takes wushan county as an example, on the basis of comprehensive analysis of some factors, such as population, unit area grain yield, the adjustment of agricultural structure, the farmland demand in construction, predicts the cultivated land demand quantity and effective supply of cultivated land in 2010, 2020 by cultivated area of food security model. The results showed that the land demand areas in 2010, 2020 were 33428.57 hm2, 33391.25 hm2, and the effective supply areas in 2010, 2020 were 41102.82 hm2, 40205.62 hm2. Having regard to the poor agricultural conditions and local situation, it was determined that farmland protection areas in 2010, 2020 were 41200.00 hm2, 40400.00 hm2. It was concluded that the effective supply of cultivated land was higher than the demand quantity area and could fulfill future food production targets. And this paper puts forward some suggestions to ensure farmland quantity and the grain security.