Abstract:

In order to predict the annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products five years ahead (2011—2015), an ordinary GM (1,1) model and three metabolism GM (1,1) models, which were based on the gray system theory, were first established to predict annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products from 2006 to 2009. Meanwhile, comparison analysis in prediction accuracies between the ordinary GM (1,1) model and metabolism GM (1,1) models was performed. The results of comparison analysis showed that the gray metabolism GM (1,1) model had higher value of prediction accuracy and was more suitable for predicting annual total yields of aquatic products, comparing to the ordinary GM (1,1) model. Therefore, the gray metabolism GM (1,1) model was then chose to predict the annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products five years ahead (2011—2015). Predicting results showed that the annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products from 2011 to 2015 would respectively reached 55.32333, 57.46315, 59.72634, 62.02738, 64.43838 million tons. At the same time, the annual growth rate in aquatic products yield could be 3.7%, which was much higher than the objective annual growth rate (2.2%) of China’s 12th Five-Year Plan. Results above indicated that: (1) the gray metabolism GM (1,1) model was very suitable for predicting yields of aquatic products; (2) the total yield of Chinese aquatic products five years ahead could completely reached the target of China’s 12th Five-Year Plan.