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Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (1): 174-179.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb14100040

Special Issue: 资源与环境

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Early-warning of Resource and Environment Pressure in Anhui Province Based on RBF

  

  • Received:2014-10-15 Revised:2014-11-05 Accepted:2014-11-28 Online:2015-03-18 Published:2015-03-18

Abstract: Based on the related data of resource and environment pressure in Anhui Province from 1996 to 2011, this paper constructed an early-warning index of resource and environment pressure system for Anhui Province from two aspects which were resource pressure and environment pressure. According to the entropy weight method to measure index of resources and environment pressure and then using the RBF model to make a prediction for resource and environment pressure development trend of Anhui Province in 1996—2011, and at last made a warning analysis of the resource and environment pressure of the Anhui province from 1996 to 2011 according to the early-warning index and warning degree standards. Based on the analysis, the results show that: RBF model has a relatively high simulation accuracy, which can well fit the resources and environment pressure system's development trends of Anhui Province in 1996—2011. The early-warning index of the resource pressure system showed an upward trend with fluctuations in 1996—2011, and the warning degree rose from moderate alarm to giant alarm; As for the environment system, but since 2005 the warning degree rose from moderate alarm to heavy alarm and giant alarm. The main factors that influence the resource and environment pressure of Anhui Province include per capita electricity consumption, water consumption per capita, the proportion of natural disaster-affected area, the total energy consumption, Industrial waste gas emissions and Solid waste emissions. These are the focus of resource and environment pressure regulation in the future.