Abstract: To determine the occurrence rule of Hydrellia griseola in rice producing areas of Heilongjiang Province (Sanjiang plain) and the main meteorological factors affecting the occurrence of Hydrellia griseola, an experiment was conducted to investigate the occurrence of Hydrellia griseola in Sanjiang plain from 2006 for 10 consecutive years, meteorological factors and the first generation of the insect population were collected during Hydrellia griseola occurrence period, by means of path analysis and stepwise regression analysis, the insect population of 100 plants, the meteorological factors and the population of the first generation of Hydrellia griseola in the end of June were studied. The results showed that the first generation of insect population and the average air temperature in the middle of May were the direct factors that affected Hydrellia griseolas, the average temperature in early May and late May influenced Hydrellia griseolas population of 100 plants by its influence on the first generation of insect population. The short term forecasting model based on stepwise regression Y=-150.012- 1.432X1+ 7.79X4+ 0.17X6+ 5.96X7- 0.121X9- 0.14X12- 0.09X15+ 1.43X19 fitting effect was good. It could be used in the prediction of Hydrellia griseola in Sanjiang plain.