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Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2018, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (2): 98-106.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb17090148

Special Issue: 耕地保护

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Benefit Post-evaluation of Land Consolidation Project Based on System Dynamics

  

  • Received:2017-09-27 Revised:2017-10-16 Accepted:2017-10-25 Online:2018-01-23 Published:2018-01-23

Abstract: Land consolidation with a single target of new cultivated land is difficult to meet requirements of comprehensive remediation phase. To further improve the theory, content and method of benefit evaluation of land consolidation project, the authors took the land consolidation project in Machang Town of Cangzhou, Hebei as the research object, based on the principle of system dynamics, constructed the dynamic model of land consolidation system with software platform by Vensim. The results showed that the relative error of historical data and simulation data were controlled within 5%; the index of food production, per capita income, employment number, public satisfaction and other indicators in the study area would have a trend of steady improvement over the next ten years, however, the landscape diversity and biodiversity would decrease for a long time. The simulation results showed that the system dynamics model passed the test of validity and stability on the structure and function, which could effectively predict the development trend of various benefit indexes in the medium and long term. After the implementation of land consolidation project in the research area, the economic and social benefits were significant and the ecological environment was improved, but there existed inevitably negative impacts on ecological indicators such as biodiversity and landscape diversity.

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