Abstract:

It is of great significance to grasp the occurrence and development law of wheat dry hot wind disaster and take targeted defensive measures to ensure food security. According to the meteorological industry standard of wheat dry-hot wind, using the daily meteorological observation data of 9 national meteorological stations and 114 regional automatic stations in agricultural areas in Bazhou from May to June from 1981 to 2023, the data of wheat development period and geographical basic information of agricultural meteorological observation stations, combined with ArcGIS10.8 technical mapping, the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of wheat dry-hot wind days and processes in Bazhou were analyzed, and the risk zoning and evaluation were carried out. The results showed that the number of dry hot wind days and weather process showed a trend of decreasing first and then increasing slowly, and then increasing obviously after decreasing slowly. The trend tendency rate was 2.2 d/10a and 1.2 meta/10 a, respectively in recent 43 years. In the 1980s, the decrease was more obvious, in the 1990s and 2010s, it showed an increasing trend, and after 2011, it increased significantly, which had the characteristics of time stages, and 2017 and 2022 were the years of high dry hot wind. From the proportion of three different degrees of dry-hot wind, the number of days and processes of light dry-hot wind are the most, and the trend of light process is significant; the number and process of medium and heavy dry-hot wind days did not change significantly. The number of dry hot wind days and the number of dry hot wind weather processes are similar in spatial distribution, that is, the desert oasis area in the southeast margin of the Taklimakan Desert is frequent and high occurrence area, the Bosten Lake waters and Yanqi Basin are less occurrence area, and other areas are secondary occurrence area, showing the spatial distribution characteristics of ‘more in the southeast and less in the northeast’ with obvious regionalism. The risk zoning results are divided into four levels of dry hot wind risk areas: heavy, heavier, moderate and mild (no), which can provide reference for disaster prevention in different risk planting areas.

Key words: wheat, dry hot wind, risk zoning, Bazhou Region, meteorological disaster, climate change