Characteristics and Prediction of Extreme Low Temperature in Apple Flowering Period in the Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia Region

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2025-0990

Abstract

Abstract:

The characteristics of extreme low temperature changes in apple flowering period in the past and future climate scenarios in Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia region were studied to provide reference for the prevention of freezing injury in apple flowering period. Based on the daily and hourly temperature data of 21 representative county meteorological stations in Shaanxi, Gansu and Ningxia from April 1981 to April 2024, and the daily minimum temperature forecast data in April under two greenhouse gas emission climate scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the extreme low temperature variation characteristics and freezing injury frequency index in apple flowering period in the past and future climate scenarios were analyzed by linear tendency estimation method, Mann-Kendall trend test and frequency index. The results showed that: from 1981 to 2024, the extreme minimum temperature of apples in most representative counties of Shaanxi, Gansu and Ningxia showed an upward trend, and the extreme minimum temperature of Litong in Ningxia and Xifeng in Gansu suddenly changed in the 1990s, the frequency of freezing injury in flowering period in Shaanxi was the lowest, and that in Ningxia was the highest; in the process of freezing injury in apple flowering period, the lowest temperature mainly appeared at 4:00-7:00, and the cumulative time was 1-4 hours. Under the future climate scenario model, the extreme minimum temperature in flowering was still on the rise, and the temperature rose was more obvious under RCP8.5 scenario; and the frequency of freezing injury in flowering period had decreased compared with that of the past 44 years; the frequency of freezing injury in flowering period in Gansu and Ningxia under the low-emission scenario was higher than that under the high-emission scenario. To sum up, in the future, the risk of freezing injury of apples in Shaanxi, Gansu and Ningxia will be reduced under the high emission climate scenario model, but the comprehensive effects of low temperature intensity and duration should still be considered. The occurrence time and duration of the lowest temperature in the process of freezing injury in flowering period are conducive to choose the best time to prevent freezing injury in apple flowering period and improve the defense effect.

Key words: characteristics, estimation, extreme low temperature, apple flowering period

CLC Number:

P49，S661.1

ZHANG Weimin, ZHANG Xuting, LIU Jianchen, LIU Yadong, PAN Yuying. Characteristics and Prediction of Extreme Low Temperature in Apple Flowering Period in the Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia Region[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2026, 42(5): 178-185.

Figures/Tables 9

References 22

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等级	花期冻害程度	日最低气温
1	轻度	-2<T_min≤0
2	中度	-4<T_min≤-2
3	重度	≤-4

等级	花期冻害程度	日最低气温
1	轻度	-2<T_min≤0
2	中度	-4<T_min≤-2
3	重度	≤-4

省份	县区	轻度	中度	重度	总指数
陕西	白水	15.9	11.4	0	27.3
	凤翔	22.7	9.1	0	31.8
	礼泉	22.7	0	0	22.7
	洛川	36.4	4.5	2.3	43.2
	米脂	34.1	22.7	9.1	65.9
	旬邑	38.6	20.5	9.1	68.2
	宝塔	34.1	13.6	4.5	52.3
	均值	29.2	11.7	3.6	44.5
甘肃	泾川	40.9	18.2	6.8	65.9
	静宁	45.5	29.5	15.9	90.9
	礼县	25	6.8	2.3	34.1
	秦安	11.4	9.1	0	20.5
	庆城	22.7	22.7	2.3	47.7
	西峰	20.5	9.1	4.5	34.1
	均值	27.2	15.9	5.3	48.9
宁夏	大武口	38.6	18.2	9.1	65.9
	贺兰	29.5	18.2	6.8	54.5
	利通	25	9.1	4.5	38.6
	灵武	40.9	25	18.2	84.1
	青铜峡	40.9	13.6	9.1	63.6
	沙坡头	22.7	29.5	13.6	65.9
	永宁	25	18.2	6.8	50.0
	中宁	22.7	20.5	9.1	52.3
	均值	30.7	19.0	9.7	59.4

省份	县区	轻度	中度	重度	总指数
陕西	白水	15.9	11.4	0	27.3
	凤翔	22.7	9.1	0	31.8
	礼泉	22.7	0	0	22.7
	洛川	36.4	4.5	2.3	43.2
	米脂	34.1	22.7	9.1	65.9
	旬邑	38.6	20.5	9.1	68.2
	宝塔	34.1	13.6	4.5	52.3
	均值	29.2	11.7	3.6	44.5
甘肃	泾川	40.9	18.2	6.8	65.9
	静宁	45.5	29.5	15.9	90.9
	礼县	25	6.8	2.3	34.1
	秦安	11.4	9.1	0	20.5
	庆城	22.7	22.7	2.3	47.7
	西峰	20.5	9.1	4.5	34.1
	均值	27.2	15.9	5.3	48.9
宁夏	大武口	38.6	18.2	9.1	65.9
	贺兰	29.5	18.2	6.8	54.5
	利通	25	9.1	4.5	38.6
	灵武	40.9	25	18.2	84.1
	青铜峡	40.9	13.6	9.1	63.6
	沙坡头	22.7	29.5	13.6	65.9
	永宁	25	18.2	6.8	50.0
	中宁	22.7	20.5	9.1	52.3
	均值	30.7	19.0	9.7	59.4

省份	县区	轻度		中度		重度		总
省份	县区	RCP4.5	RCP8.5	RCP4.5	RCP8.5	RCP4.5	RCP8.5	RCP4.5	RCP8.5
陕西	白水	16.7	20.0	6.7	6.7	0.0	3.3	23.4	30.0
	礼泉	13.3	16.7	6.7	3.3	0.0	0.0	20.0	20.0
	凤翔	23.3	33.3	16.7	6.7	0.0	0.0	40.0	40.0
	宝塔	23.3	30.0	3.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	26.6	30.0
	洛川	13.3	20.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	13.3	20.0
	米脂	36.7	30.0	10.0	10.0	0.0	0.0	46.7	40.0
	旬邑	3.3	10.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.3	10.0
	均值	18.6	22.9	6.2	3.8	0.0	0.5	24.8	27.1
甘肃	泾川	30.0	23.3	0.0	3.3	0.0	0.0	30.0	26.6
	静宁	33.3	33.3	40.0	23.3	3.3	10.0	76.7	66.6
	礼县	46.7	33.3	13.3	10.0	3.3	10.0	63.3	53.3
	秦安	40.0	30.0	16.7	16.7	0.0	3.3	56.7	50.0
	庆城	36.7	30.0	6.7	16.7	0.0	0.0	43.4	46.7
	西峰	36.7	30.0	3.3	13.3	0.0	0.0	40.0	43.3
	均值	37.2	30.0	13.3	13.9	1.1	3.9	51.7	47.8
宁夏	大武口	43.3	36.7	16.7	20.0	13.3	0.0	73.3	56.7
	贺兰	30.0	26.7	23.3	20.0	10.0	0.0	63.3	46.7
	利通	33.3	30.0	16.7	20.0	10.0	0.0	60.0	50.0
	灵武	33.3	30.0	16.7	20.0	10.0	0.0	60.0	50.0
	青铜峡	26.7	33.3	16.7	13.3	10.0	0.0	53.4	46.6
	沙坡头	36.7	36.7	16.7	20.0	10.0	0.0	63.4	56.7
	永宁	23.3	33.3	20.0	16.7	10.0	0.0	53.3	50.0
	中宁	33.3	26.7	20.0	20.0	10.0	0.0	63.3	46.7
	均值	32.5	31.7	18.4	18.8	10.4	0.0	61.3	50.4