Abstract:

Many factors including the change of macro economic environment, effect of economic crisis, replacement of new materials and application of new technology, transformation to consumption concept of forest products, had affected on the development of forestry industry in Yunnan province to some extent. How to predict and grasp industrial development tendency will have practical significance to forestry industry whose character is ‘big resources, small industry’ in Yunnan province. Based on the data of output value to forestry industry in Yunnan province, the author established the whitening equation and time response formula to the developing output value of forestry industry, what’s more, predicted the development tendency of output value to forestry industry in Yunnan province through testing the passing ability and precision of GM(1,1) model. According to predicted results, not only did the author look forward to the growth rate and development scale of forestry three industries and compared the fast and slow degree of developing rate to forestry three industries in Yunnan province from 2010 to 2014, but also discussed the analysis methods to forecast and evaluate the future development of forestry industry in Yunnan province.