Abstract:

The multiple regression prediction model and the disaster decrement rate were applied discussion of grain yield forecast method. Based on corn yield and the related climatic data in Benxi County, the logistic was used in the establishment of corn tendency output sequence. The separated meteorological output was transformed into the relative meteorological output, the related screening predictor was carried out, and the forecast model was set up. The result showed that corn tendency output sequence constructed by the logistic, could increase the precision of tendency output fitting. The selection meteorological factor had certain biology significance, strengthened the scientific characteristics of forecast model. The multiple regressions forecast model and the disaster decrement rate revising forecast corn yield accuracy reached 90%. It provided the scientific basis for grain yield forecast's quantification and the fine refinement.