Abstract:

In order to understand the momentum of development of grain production ability in Hunan Province during the "12th Five-Year Plan" and make grain production in Hunan Province do a sustainable development. By using the grey theory, the paper established the model of evaluation on the impact of factors of the development of grain production in Hunan Province and did an evaluation on the impact of main influence factors of the development of grain production in Hunan Province. The results showed that, the order of correlation degree from high to low ranking about seven main factors on total grain yield from the development of grain production in Hunan Province from 2003 to 2010 was: the amount of chemical fertilizer, seeded area, total power of agricultural machinery, effective irrigation area, electricity in rural area, agricultural labors, disaster area. Based on the existing development, the grain production in Hunan Province would show good momentum of development during the "12th Five-Year Plan". Therefore, it should widely consider various factors by combining with the actual situation of Hunan in order to ensure the main development goals the grain production in Hunan Province as scheduled tasks to achieve.