Welcome to Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2018, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (33): 115-121.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb17120044

Special Issue: 现代农业发展与乡村振兴 农业气象

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Comprehensive Evaluation of Agriculture Drought Risk in Heilongjiang Province Based on Projection Pursuit Model Optimized by Real Coding Based Accelerating Genetic Algorithm

  

  • Received:2017-12-09 Revised:2018-10-31 Accepted:2018-01-12 Online:2018-11-22 Published:2018-11-22

Abstract: To comprehensively evaluate agriculture drought risk in Heilongjiang Province from the perspective of time and space, the projection pursuit model optimized by real coding based accelerating genetic algorithm (RAGA) was applied and the agricultural drought risk evaluation index system was constructed. The temporal variation results indicated that the agricultural drought risk in Heilongjiang Province decreased from 2006 to 2015, mainly affected by the drought dangerousness and the resistance capacity. The dangerousness had volatility, and slowly increased exposure, and the resistance capacity showed increased stability. The spatial distribution results indicated that the drought risk in the western regions was significantly higher than that in the eastern regions. The differences were primarily caused by higher drought dangerousness, higher exposure and lower resistance capacity in the western regions of Heilongjiang Province. The results also showed that Qigihar, Suihua and Heihe City were located in high-risk areas and Hegang, Yichun and Mudanjiang were located in low-risk areas