Abstract:

It is of great significance to quantitatively assess the spatial distribution pattern, evolution characteristics and influence mechanism of climatic potential productivity in highland barley production area of different climatic zones in Tibetan plateau for studying the changes of highland barley growth environment and the sustainable development of the industry. Based on the series of observation data from 7 meteorological stations, we analyzed the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of climatic potential productivity in highland barley production areas of Tibetan plateau and its response to climate change by using statistical analysis methods, such as Miami model, Thornthwaite Memorial model, climate trend rate, and Mann-Kendall mutation test. The results showed that: NPP_t of each station in highland barley areas during 1961-2018 showed an extremely significant increase trend, NPP_r showed a significant increase trend, and NPP_e and NPP_b showed an increasing trend with fluctuation; the limiting factor of NPP_b in the eastern main highland barley areas of Tibetan plateau and along the Yarlung Zangbo River was precipitation, while the limiting factor of NPP_b in the cold northern region was temperature or evapotranspiration. NPP_t, NPP_r, NPP_e and NPP_b all showed inter-decadal increase trend, which had a mutation from 1980s to 1990s, and became more significant in the early 21 ^st century. The transition to “warm and humid” climate is conducive to improving the climatic potential productivity of local highland barley during 1961-2018, the production of highland barley depends not only on climate resources, but also on the allocation and utilization of water resources.

Key words: climate change, climatic potential productivity, Miami model, Thornthwaite Memorial model, highland barley