Abstract:

The impact of climate change on grain production in China has been highly concerned, and a lot of researches have been formed. However, the evaluation results of the impact are somewhat controversial. By studying 100 relevant high-quality literature at home and abroad since the beginning of the 21^st century, the impacts of climate change on China’s grain production were summarized and discussed. The results show that: (1) since 1961, climate change has influenced China’s grain production mainly by affecting the crop growth, changing the cropping structure, and causing the intensification of agricultural diseases and pests and meteorological disasters, the impact is both positive and negative, but the overall effect is negative, and the negative effect is mainly caused by the temperature increase; (2) the impact of climate change on grain production varies in different regions, in the high latitudes such as China’s northeast region and northwest oasis, the increase of temperature has improved the regional heat condition and also the grain production; in the North China Plain, the rice planting areas in south China, the southwest China and the dry farming areas in northwest China, the increase of temperature has shortened the crop growth period, and combined with the change of precipitation, the climate change has led to the decline of grain production; (3) without considering the fertilizer effect of CO₂, future climate change is likely to cause the decrease of grain production, and the decrease of wheat production might be more than that of rice and maize production; considering the fertilizer effect of CO₂, the negative effect of climate change would be weakened, and the impact of climate change on rice production in northeast China and wheat production in North China Plain might be positive.

Key words: climate change, grain production, impact, regional difference, fertilizer effect of CO₂, literature review