Abstract:

To analyze the change of grain production capacity in Heilongjiang during 2011-2020 and explore the possibility of optimizing the per unit area yield and planting area of crops under the constraints of grain production capacity in 2025 are conducive to the planning layout of grain production in Heilongjiang and the province’s role as ‘ballast stone’ of national food security. According to the statistical yearbook and historical data available on network, the planting optimization schemes of maize, rice and soybean varieties under the extremum condition of grain production capacity in Heilongjiang in 2025 were explored by using floating-point coding genetic algorithm (FGA) and entropy weight comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that: for the optimized scheme by only adjusting the per unit area yield, the yield increase of soybean, rice and maize should be 5.01%, 5.00% and 3.69%, respectively, compared with those of 2020. For the optimized scheme by only adjusting the planting area, the planting area of maize, rice and soybean should be increased by 8.34%, 3.31% and -0.04%, respectively, compared with those of 2020. For the optimized scheme of coordinated adjustment of planting area and per unit area yield, the increase range should be maize planting area by 7.97%, soybean per unit area yield by 5.01%, rice planting area by 3.31%, maize per unit area yield by 2.29%, soybean planting area by -0.04%, and rice per unit area yield by -3.67% compared with those of 2020. Therefore, the dynamic optimized scheme to achieve the grain production capacity target could be obtained by adjusting planting area, or per unit area yield, or the coordination of planting area and per unit area yield. This study will provide scientific support for the planting layout and safe production of grain crops in Heilongjiang Province.

Key words: optimization analysis, grain production capacity, FGA algorithm, entropy weight evaluation, Heilongjiang Province