Abstract:

In Qaidam Lycium barbarum producing area, the developmental phase, precipitation and sunshine in stations of Golmud and Nuomuhong were selected, and the effect of meteorological factors in different developmental phases on yield was studied by stepwise regression and probability statistics. The results showed that: (1) Lycium barbarum yield was positively correlated with daily average temperature in flowering stage of Laoyan branch, the highest temperature and accumulated temperature in spring branch growth stage, the lowest temperature in fructescence of Laoyan branch, temperature daily range in summer fruit formation and maturity stage and total sunshine hours of spring branch growth and autumn branch flowering stage; (2) the yield of Lycium barbarum was negatively correlated with the precipitation in the flowering stage of Laoyan branch, fruit formation stage of Laoyan branch, growth stage of spring branch, summer fruit maturity stage, autumn branch flowering stage and autumn fruit maturity stage; (3) the results of regression analysis between key meteorological factors and Lycium barbarum yield showed that the multiple correlation coefficient of the equation was 0.9705, according to built model, the results of previous yield and practical yield in 2019 had little absolute error and relative error, and high forecast accuracy, fully indicating that the selected 5 meteorological elements could accurately forecast the production of Lycium barbarum, which could be applied in practical forecast.

Key words: Lycium barbarum yield, classification of developmental period, composition of production factors, analysis of meteorological conditions, model construction, Qaidam Basin