Climate Change Affects Major Crops’ Yield in Qaidam Basin

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb18120126

Abstract

Abstract:

To provide scientific support for making use of climatic resources rationally and improving the potential of crop production, the data of temperature, precipitation and yield of main crops (wheat, rape) in Qaidam Basin from 1991 to 2017 were used to analyze the main climatic factors (temperature and precipitation), the variation characteristics of crop yield and the influence of climate factors on crop yield by mathematical statistics method. The results showed that: (1) the annual average temperature in the Qaidam Basin increased significantly from 1991 to 2017, with a warming rate of 0.5℃/10 a, and a slight increase in precipitation of 16.5 mm/10 a, the climate tended to be warm and wet; (2) the increase trend of crop yield was obvious, the average annual increase of wheat was 73.0 kg/hm ², the average annual increase of rape was 37.9 kg/hm ²; the interannual change of wheat relative to meteorological yield was obvious, and that of rape was more frequent; (3) there was a significant correlation between the crop yield and annual average temperature and annual precipitation, when the temperature increased by 1.0℃, the wheat yield increased by 845.8 kg/hm ², the rape yield increased by 454.5 kg/hm ²; for every 10 mm increase of precipitation, the wheat yield increased by 140.0 kg/hm ²and the rape yield increased by 74.0 kg/hm ², the effect of temperature on crop yield was greater than that of precipitation.

Key words: Qaidam Basin, climate change, crop yield, effect

CLC Number:

S162.5

Wang Fake, Lei Yuhong, Du Zhanliang, Cai Yuqin. Climate Change Affects Major Crops’ Yield in Qaidam Basin[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2020, 36(14): 107-112.

Figures/Tables 7

References 20

[1]	周义, 覃志豪, 包刚 . 气候变化对农业的影响及应对[J]. 中国农学通报, 2011,27(32):299-303.
[2]	郭建平 . 气候变化对中国农业生产的影响研究进展[J]. 应用气象学报, 2015,26(1):1-11.
[3]	周曙东, 周文魁, 朱红根 , 等. 气候变化对农业的影响及应对措施[J]. 南京农业大学学报:社会科学版, 2010,10(1):34-39.
[4]	周广胜 . 气候变化对中国农业生产影响研究展望[J]. 气象与环境科学, 2015,38(1):80-94.
[5]	刘德祥, 董安祥, 梁东升 , 等. 气候变暖对西北干旱区农作物种植结构的影响[J]. 中国沙漠, 2007,27(5):831-836.
[6]	邓振镛, 张强, 蒲金涌 , 等. 气候变暖对中国西北地区农作物种植的影响[J]. 生态学报, 2008,28(8):3760-3768.
[7]	廖玉芳, 宋忠华, 赵福华 , 等. 气候变化对湖南主要农作物种植结构的影响[J]. 中国农学通报, 201026(24):276-286.
[8]	姚小英, 王劲松, 王莺 , 等. 广东近40年气候变化特征及对农业的影响[J]. 中国农学通报2015 31(26):222-228.
[9]	李阔, 许吟隆 . 适应气候变化的中国农业种植结构调整研究[J]. 中国农业科技导报, 2017,19(1):8-17.
[10]	刘玉杰, 杨艳昭, 封志明 . 中国粮食生产的区域格局变化及其可能影响[J]. 资源科学, 2007,29(2):8-14.
[11]	陆文聪, 梅燕 . 中国粮食生产区域格局变化及其成因实证分析—基于空间计量经济学模型[J]. 中国农业大学学报:社会科学版, 2007,24(3):140-152.
[12]	姜晓清, 周丽, 范君 , 等. 气候变化对宜宾市主要粮食产量的影响分析[J]. 中国农学通报, 2015,31(17):241-245.
[13]	蒲金涌, 李晓薇, 李蓉 . 天水市近50年干旱灾害变化特征及对夏、秋粮影响风险评估[J]. 中国农学通报, 2012,28(35):280-285.
[14]	刘立涛, 刘晓洁, 伦飞 , 等. 全球气候变化下的中国粮食安全问题研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2018,33(6):927-939.
[15]	王铮, 郑一萍 . 全球变化对中国粮食安全的影响分析[J]. 地理研究, 2001,20(3):282-289.
[16]	王力, 李凤霞, 徐维新 , 等. 气候变化对柴达木灌区小麦生育期的影响[J]. 中国农业气象, 2010,31(增1):81-83.
[17]	汪青春, 张国胜, 李林 , 等. 柴达木盆地近40 a气候变化及其对农业影响的研究[J]. 干旱气象, 2004,22(4):29-33.
[18]	樊光秀, 白岩岳, 卢红霞 , 等. 气候变化对柴达木盆地春小麦生长期及产量的影响[J]. 青海气象, 2012(3):20-22.
[19]	魏风英 . 现代气候统计诊断预测技术(第2版)[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2007.
[20]	郭连云, 赵年武, 田辉春 . 气象影响因子对高寒针茅草原牧草产量的影响[J], 草业科学, 2010,27(10):79-84.