Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to provide scientific reference for the quarantine detection, comprehensive control and risk analysis of Bactrocera dorsalis Hendel in Sichuan Basin. Four niche prediction models, i.e. Maxent, GARP, Bioclim and Domain were used to predict the areas of potential distribution of B. dorsalis in Sichuan Basin. The results of different models were analyzed and compared using two statistical criteria: the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Kappa value. The AUC average values of the four models are all above 0.9 and the Kappa average values are above 0.75, indicating that the prediction model has high prediction accuracy. Furthermore, the paper shows that precipitation of the driest month, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, temperature seasonality and mean diurnal range are the key environmental variables that dominated the potential distribution of B. dorsalis, which play a decisive role in the formation of the current distribution of B. dorsalis. The suitable areas and locations of B. dorsalis predicted by four models are quite different, but they all contain the hilly area in central Sichuan Basin, the parallel rank-valley area in eastern Sichuan Basin and the low mountain area in southern Sichuan Basin. The highly and moderately suitable areas are concentrated in the east of the hilly area in central Sichuan Basin, the west of the parallel rank-valley area in eastern Sichuan Basin and the low mountain area in southern Sichuan Basin. It can be seen that the suitable areas of B. dorsalis in Sichuan Basin is wide. In view of the economic importance of citrus to Sichuan Basin, the local relevant departments should strengthen the detection and quarantine work of B. dorsalis to avoid large losses.

Key words: Bactrocera dorsalis Hendel, Niche models, potential suitable habitat, Sichuan Basin