Abstract:

The data of flowering onset and corresponding meteorological factors from 2007 to 2020 of soft pear cultivars with a long history in Guide County were used, the correlation between the initial flowering period and the ten-day average temperature, the ten-day average maximum temperature, the ten-day average minimum temperature, the ten-day precipitation and the ten-day sunshine hours was analyzed, the forecasting model of the beginning flowering period of pear tree in every ten days from late February to early April was established by using stepwise regression method. The correlation of temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration per ten days between the first ten days of September and the middle ten days of April was calculated, the opening time of pear blossom is affected by the meteorological factors in different periods of the overwintering period, and the meteorological factors in the later period have a great influence, while the meteorological factors in the earlier period have a relatively small influence. The model test results showed that there were 10 years that the difference between the predicted value and the measured value was within 3 days, and the prediction accuracy was 86%. The prediction accuracy is high, the fitting degree is good, and the model can be applied. This model can better serve the development of ecological and cultural tourism in the Yellow River.

Key words: Guide region, the first flowering period of pear trees, forecasting model