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Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2016, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (3): 151-159.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15070120

Special Issue: 玉米 农业气象

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Sophisticated Area Forecast Suitable for Corn Planting Based on the Meteorological Regional Automatic Station Data

  

  1. Zhang Mei, Chen Yuguang, Fu Xiaoyan, Guan Jian(Liaoyang Meteorological Bureau, Liaoyang Liaoning 111000)
  • Received:2015-07-21 Revised:2015-08-10 Accepted:2015-08-19 Online:2016-01-29 Published:2016-01-29

Abstract: The study aims to carry out refined weather forecast and provide sophisticated area forecast which is suitable for corn planting at village and township level for local governments and agricultural sectors. 24 regression equations were established by the correlation analysis of the daily average temperature between 24 regional automatic stations in Liaoyang City and Liaoyang station from April to May in 2010-2014, the authors made the forecast with the model under the aid of rainfall drawing software and divided the whole region into 3 areas: suitable for corn planting, comparatively suitable for corn planting and not suitable for corn planting. After inspection, the authors found that the correlation coefficient of the 24 regression equations all reached 0.01 significant level, the variation trend of back substitution and actual value was consistent basically, the absolute error (ABSE) and the standard error (RMSE) ranged between 0.2℃ and 0.7℃, which could be used to forecast the daily average temperature of 24 towns. The use of the rainfall drawing software is easy and can be promoted.

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