Welcome to Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2017, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (29): 25-30.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb16080146

Special Issue: 生物技术 水稻

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Forecasting Method of Rice Phenology Stage Based on Physiological Development Period

Zhang Mingda1, Hu Xueqiong1,Zhu Ya2, Zhang Jiayun1, He Yuqin1, Xu Mengying1, Zhu Yong1   

  1. (1Yunnan Climate Center, Kunming 650034;2Yunnan Atmospheric Exploration Technology Security Center, Kunming 650034)
  • Received:2016-08-31 Revised:2017-09-25 Accepted:2017-04-24 Online:2017-10-24 Published:2017-10-24

Abstract: Rice phenological models are the bases of modern agro-meteorological service. Based on the conservation principle of crop physiological development stage, with the consideration of influences of climatic variables (i.e. temperature, sunshine hours and so on) on rice phenological stage, we built and verified the phenological forecasting model which were suitable for hsien rice and japonica rice planting region, using the observational data during rice phenology stage and ground meteorological data (2011-2014) from 12 agro-meteorological stations of Yunnan. The results showed that: both of prediction and observation value hsien and japonica phonological prediction models had good performances with 7.47 in averaged root-mean-square error (RMSE) and 7.99% in relative error (RE); the relative error (RE) was higher in hsien phonological prediction model (9.5%) than in japonica phonological prediction model (6.49%), implying the better performance of model prediction for japonica. Therefore, the biologically based and universally applied crop phonological process model is applicable for agrometeorological service.

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