Abstract:

The paper aims to find out the main meteorological factors affecting pomegranate fruit cracking, and improve the quality of special meteorological service products. Taking the Zaozhuang pomegranate orchard as subject, we analyzed the meteorological data of Yicheng National General Meteorological Station located in the main pomegranate production area of Zaozhuang, and established the correlation prediction models between meteorological factors, such as precipitation, temperature and sunshine, and pomegranate fruit cracking by Logistic regression. The results showed that: apart from the negative correlation between the total precipitation in late August to September and the probability of fruit cracking, the other factors were positively correlated with the probability of fruit cracking; the factors which had greater effect on fruit cracking were in an order of the precipitation in the longest continuous precipitation period in September, the longest continuous precipitation days in September, the sunshine duration in September, and the longest continuous no precipitation days in September, while the other factors had relatively small effect. The prediction accuracy of pomegranate fruit cracking in late summer and early autumn by the established models is 97.4%, showing an ideal prediction effect.

Key words: Zaozhuang pomegranate, fruit cracking, meteorological factors, Logistic regression, prediction model, model evaluation