Abstract:

Based on the observation of the apricot tree phenology and the daily average temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours of the corresponding period in Kashi City, and Yecheng, Shache, Bachu and Maigaiti County of Kashi Prefecture of Xinjiang, the relationship between the beginning of apricot flowering and meteorological factors was analyzed using correlation analysis and regression analysis. The results show that among the various meteorological factors, the lowest temperature has the greatest impact on flowering, followed by the average temperature and sunlight, and the precipitation and other meteorological factors have less influence. The temperature in the study area is positively correlated to the flowering period of the apricot tree. From 1984 to 2019, the minimum temperature and average temperature increase in Kashi from late February to late March was 0.2-1.7℃/10 years. The apricot flower bud expansion period, flower bud opening period, the beginning of flowering was ahead of time by 5.3 to 8.7, 3.1 to 5.6, and 2.2 to 3.6 d/10 a, respectively. In apricot flowering period forecasting service, the daily average temperature of north, south and east of Kashi passed through ≥0℃ from day 1 to 34, day 39 to 41, day 37 to 39, or the accumulated temperature passed ≥0℃ before flowering reaching 250, 270-280, and 250-270℃, respectively, or the sliding average temperature of 5 days before the beginning of flowering passed≥12℃ could be used as the basis for predicting the beginning of apricot tree flowering.

Key words: apricot, initial flowering period, meteorological factors, correlation analysis, predication method