Abstract:

The study established the suitable dynamic prediction of single cropping rice yield in Yunnan, aiming to provide a theoretical basis and decision support for predicting single cropping rice yield timely and accurately. Based on the data of single cropping rice yield, daily average air temperature, daily precipitation and daily sunshine hours in the growth period from 2000 to 2018 in Yunnan, dynamic prediction models were established by using methods with similar meteorological year type and with key meteorological factors. The results showed that the average prediction accuracy of the two prediction models both exceeded 92% on June 1, July 1, August 1 and August 21. The average accuracy of the similar meteorological year type model was 95.4% and 97.5% respectively on June 1 and August 21 from 2016 to 2018; and the average accuracy of the key meteorological factors model was 97.4% in the same period. The prediction accuracy of both the two dynamic prediction models is high enough to meet the needs of prediction service in Yunnan.

Key words: single cropping rice, similar meteorological year type, key meteorological factors, dynamic yield prediction, Yunnan