Welcome to Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (30): 262-267.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15050097

Special Issue: 油料作物 园艺 农业气象

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Research on Meteorological Grade Forecast of Rape Sclerotinia Sclerotiorum in Anhui Province

Yue Wei1, Cao Wen1, Liu Yuanyuan1, Wang Zhen1, Zheng Zhaoyang2   

  1. (1Anhui Agriculture Meteorological Centre, Hefei 230031;2Anhui Provincial Station of Plant Protection, Hefei 230001)
  • Received:2015-05-18 Revised:2015-06-29 Accepted:2015-07-01 Online:2015-10-29 Published:2015-10-29

Abstract: In order to meet the demand of meteorological grade forecast of crop disease and insect and pest in modern agriculture meteorological services, comprehensive index of meteorological conditions which had effects on rape Sclerotinia sclerotiorum occurrence and development was developed, using rape Sclerotinia sclerotiorum observation data and meteorological data of 1991-2010 from representative stations in Jianghuai, regions along the Yangtze River and regions in southern Anhui. Through the correlation analysis, the main influencing period and meteorological factors which had effects on rape Sclerotinia sclerotiorum occurrence and development was found. Through the method of normalization, weighting and etc., comprehensive index of meteorological conditions was developed. Using comprehensive index as independent variable and rate of Sclerotinia sclerotiorum disease plant as dependent variable, meteorological grade forecast models for rape Sclerotinia sclerotiorum occurrence and development in different regions were established by curve regression method. The fitting results showed that: the fitting accuracy of the model of Jianghuai, regions along the Yangtze River and regions in southern Anhui was 80%, 70% and 75%, respectively. Using the model to forecast the occurrence of rape Sclerotinia sclerotiorum in 2011, 2012 and 2013, the results showed that the forecast grade of representative stations in the Jianghuai area were all correct, while that of representative stations in the regions along the Yangtze River and the regions in southern Anhui for two years were correct, but for one year there was an error of one level. The model could basically meet the demand of meteorological grade forecast service for rape Sclerotinia sclerotiorum.

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