Calculation and Trend Prediction of Carbon Emissions from Planting Industry in Guangdong Province

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0796

Abstract

Abstract:

The study aims to clarify the carbon emission characteristics of planting industry in Guangdong Province and its decoupling status from agricultural economic growth, predict the carbon emission trend from 2022 to 2060, and provide theoretical basis for the formulation of agricultural carbon emission reduction and sink increase policies in Guangdong Province. Using the carbon emission coefficient method of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), this paper calculated the carbon emissions, carbon sinks, net carbon emissions, carbon emission intensity, and net carbon emission intensity of the planting industry in Guangdong Province from 1990 to 2021, based on two major types of carbon sources of agricultural material inputs and farmland soil utilization, then analyzed their dynamic evolution trends. The decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and agricultural economic growth was discussed by the Tapio decoupling model, the carbon emissions and net carbon emissions from 2022 to 2060 were predicted as well by the Grey prediction model GM (1, 1). The results showed that: (1) from 1990 to 2021, the total amount and net amount of carbon emissions of planting industry in Guangdong Province both showed fluctuating downward trend, with decrease of 25.23% and 30.58%, respectively. The carbon emissions from farmland soil utilization accounted for 63.94% to 79.69%, while the carbon emissions from agricultural material inputs accounted for 20.31% to 36.06%. Fertilizer, pesticides and agricultural film were the top three sources of carbon emissions from agricultural inputs, while rice planting and vegetable planting were the main sources of carbon emissions from farmland soil utilization. (2) From 1990 to 2021, the carbon sink decreased in fluctuation, with decrease of 22.23%. The carbon sink mainly came from rice, sugarcane, and vegetables plants, with the proportion of 87.23%-94.03%. (3) From 1990 to 2021, the carbon emission intensity and net carbon emission intensity in Guangdong Province measured by agricultural output value, significantly decreased by 93.20% and 93.69%, respectively. (4) The decoupling statuses were dominated by weak decoupling and strong decoupling, indicating good coordination between agricultural economic growth and carbon emissions from planting industry. (5) Using the data from 1991 to 2021, 2001 to 2021, 2011 to 2021 as samples for prediction, respectively, it was found that the carbon emissions and net carbon emissions of planting industry in Guangdong Province would both show continuous decreasing trend after 2022, but the reduction amplitude values were different. The prediction value of carbon emissions using the data from 2011 to 2021 as samples was the smallest and the reduction amplitude was the largest. Based on the above conclusions, this paper put forward relevant policy recommendations such as continuously implementing measures to reduce the amount and increase the efficiency of fertilizers, pesticides, and agricultural films, optimizing rice field management, and strengthening scientific and technological support for green and low-carbon agricultural development.

Key words: Guangdong Province, carbon emissions from planting industry, carbon sink of planting industry, Tapio decoupling model, carbon emission prediction

CHU Xialing, YE Gaosong, ZHENG Linxiu. Calculation and Trend Prediction of Carbon Emissions from Planting Industry in Guangdong Province[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2024, 40(23): 81-91.

Figures/Tables 9

References 32

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	排放源	碳排放系数	参考文献
农业物质投入	化肥	0.896 kg (C)/kg	[2]
	农药	4.934 kg (C)/kg	[24]
	农膜	5.180 kg (C)/kg	[25]
	农机	0.180 kg (C)/kW	[26]
	农业灌溉	20.476 kg (C)/hm²	[27]
	农业翻耕	3.126 kg (C)/hm²	[28]
农田土壤利用	早稻	150.500 kg (CH₄)/hm² 0.240 kg (N₂O)/hm²	[7]
	晚稻	516.000 kg (CH₄)/hm² 0.240 kg (N₂O)/hm²	[7]
	大豆	2.290 kg (N₂O)/hm²	[7]
	玉米	2.532 kg (N₂O)/hm²	[7]
	蔬菜	4.944 kg (N₂O)/hm²	[7]
	其他旱作	0.950 kg (N₂O)/hm²	[7]

	排放源	碳排放系数	参考文献
农业物质投入	化肥	0.896 kg (C)/kg	[2]
	农药	4.934 kg (C)/kg	[24]
	农膜	5.180 kg (C)/kg	[25]
	农机	0.180 kg (C)/kW	[26]
	农业灌溉	20.476 kg (C)/hm²	[27]
	农业翻耕	3.126 kg (C)/hm²	[28]
农田土壤利用	早稻	150.500 kg (CH₄)/hm² 0.240 kg (N₂O)/hm²	[7]
	晚稻	516.000 kg (CH₄)/hm² 0.240 kg (N₂O)/hm²	[7]
	大豆	2.290 kg (N₂O)/hm²	[7]
	玉米	2.532 kg (N₂O)/hm²	[7]
	蔬菜	4.944 kg (N₂O)/hm²	[7]
	其他旱作	0.950 kg (N₂O)/hm²	[7]

作物	经济系数	含水率/%	碳吸收率/[g (C)/g]
稻谷	0.45	12	0.414
玉米	0.40	13	0.471
豆类	0.34	13	0.450
花生	0.43	10	0.450
薯类	0.70	70	0.423
甘蔗	0.50	50	0.450
蔬菜	0.60	90	0.450

作物	经济系数	含水率/%	碳吸收率/[g (C)/g]
稻谷	0.45	12	0.414
玉米	0.40	13	0.471
豆类	0.34	13	0.450
花生	0.43	10	0.450
薯类	0.70	70	0.423
甘蔗	0.50	50	0.450
蔬菜	0.60	90	0.450

年份	农业物质投入		农田土壤利用		碳排放量/ (×10⁴ t)	种植业碳汇量/ (×10⁴ t)	种植业净碳排放量/ (×10⁴ t)
年份	碳排放量/(×10⁴ t)	占比/%	碳排放量/(×10⁴ t)	占比/%	碳排放量/ (×10⁴ t)	种植业碳汇量/ (×10⁴ t)	种植业净碳排放量/ (×10⁴ t)
1990	804.80	20.31	3157.97	79.69	3962.78	2569.91	1392.86
1995	895.88	24.52	2757.17	75.48	3653.06	2292.99	1360.06
2000	833.19	25.01	2497.74	74.99	3330.94	2214.28	1116.65
2005	942.50	29.59	2242.58	70.41	3185.08	1824.05	1361.03
2010	1096.41	34.64	2069.06	65.36	3165.47	1877.91	1287.56
2015	1093.23	34.86	2042.68	65.14	3135.91	2055.37	1080.54
2020	1000.36	33.46	1989.12	66.54	2989.48	2001.14	988.34
2021	968.42	32.69	1994.43	67.31	2962.85	1995.98	966.86
增长率/%	20.33	60.94	-36.84	-15.53	-25.23	-22.33	-30.58