Spatio-temporal Variation of Vegetation Coverage and Driving Mechanism During 2000-2022 in Shule River Basin

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2025-0950

Abstract

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the spatial and temporal changes of vegetation coverage and its driving mechanism in the Shule River Basin. Based on the GEE platform and MODIS-NDVI data, optimal NDVI values were determined. The methods such as the Theil-Sen slope, the Mann-Kendall test, the Hurst index and geographical detector were employed to study the spatio-temporal changes of vegetation coverage and their driving factors in Shule River Basin from 2000 to 2022. The results showed that: (1) the mean NDVI in Shule River Basin from 2000 to 2022 was 0.18, with vegetation coverage accounted for 35.7% of the basin’s total area; low and moderate coverage accounted for 20.6% and 8.2%, respectively, the higher and highest coverage together accounted for 4.3%. The vegetation coverage pattern generally showed higher in the south and lower in the north, with the Qilian-Altun Mountains regions constituted the main area of vegetation coverage, accounted for 74.4% of the basin’s vegetation area; (2) in terms of temporal change, the vegetation coverage of the Shule River Basin generally showed a fluctuating upward trend during 2000-2022, with a growth rate of 3.5%/10 a. The growth rate was slower in the first 11 years (1.2%/10 a) and faster in the last 12 years (4.7%/10 a).; in terms of spatial changes, the vegetation in most parts of the Qilian-Altun Mountains and Hexi Corridor oasis zones showed an improving trend, with the improved area accounted for 32.7% of the basin, only 2.3% of the degraded area was located mainly in the northern part of the Mazong Mountains and in the towns and cities of the Hexi Corridor; (3) vegetation coverage improvement in Shule River Basin was primarily influenced by climate and human activities, temperature and precipitation were the main drivers of vegetation change, and their interaction provided a strong explanatory power. In the future, vegetation coverage will continue to be dominated by positive persistence, with local areas showing inverse persistence.

Key words: NDVI, trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test, Hurst index, geographical detector, Shule River Basin

CLC Number:

S731.2，Q948

AN Yunru, JIA Hongru, ZHANG Meimei, JIN Hui’an. Spatio-temporal Variation of Vegetation Coverage and Driving Mechanism During 2000-2022 in Shule River Basin[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2026, 42(12): 94-102.

Figures/Tables 8

References 37

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S_NDVI	Z值	NDVI趋势变化	面积百分比/%
<-0.05	<-1.96	显著退化	0.3
<-0.05	-1.96~1.96	轻度退化	2.0
-0.05~0.05	-1.96~1.96	基本不变	0.7
≥0.05	-1.96~1.96	轻度改善	11.6
≥0.05	≥1.96	显著改善	21.1

S_NDVI	Z值	NDVI趋势变化	面积百分比/%
<-0.05	<-1.96	显著退化	0.3
<-0.05	-1.96~1.96	轻度退化	2.0
-0.05~0.05	-1.96~1.96	基本不变	0.7
≥0.05	-1.96~1.96	轻度改善	11.6
≥0.05	≥1.96	显著改善	21.1

	气温	降水	海拔	坡度	坡向	土壤类型	土地利用
q	0.333	0.388	0.339	0.163	0.029	0.152	0.289
p	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

	气温	降水	海拔	坡度	坡向	土壤类型	土地利用
q	0.333	0.388	0.339	0.163	0.029	0.152	0.289
p	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

因子	气温	坡向	坡度	海拔	降水	土壤类型	土地利用
气温	0.333
坡向	0.370	0.029
坡度	0.380	0.204	0.163
海拔	0.496	0.377	0.382	0.339
降水	0.538	0.427	0.415	0.516	0.388
土壤类型	0.306	0.287	0.363	0.319	0.399	0.152
土地利用	0.473	0.351	0.384	0.425	0.478	0.247	0.289