Abstract:

By comparative analysis on meteorological conditions and occurrences of rice leaf roller during 2005 to 2009 in Guilin region, the temperature, precipitation, wind direction, wind velocity, humidity has been choose as factor that affecting migration of rice leaf roller in Guilin region, thinking of meteorological condition and injurious number in earlier days, we use regression analysis method to establish the work system for grade forecast of meteorological condition that affecting the migration of rice leaf roller. The system has contained long term and medium term forecast. Forecast factor and target has been divided as 5 grades in the work system. Using the mouth’s and season’s and week’s weather forecast conclusion that local observatory have published, synthesize analysis the early days weather and injurious numbers condition, we can forecast the weather condition grade that affecting the migration of rice leaf roller for next mouth, or next season or each day in future 1-7 days. This is a practical forecast work system, the forecast accuracy for each day is larger than 70%. The work system has positive function for manufacture practice.