Abstract:

This information diffusion theory of Heilongjiang province from 1971 to 2005, 81 weather stations and the spatial distribution of thunderstorms variation analysis and plotted with GIS mapping technology thunderstorm days were 25 d, 30 d, 35 d, 40 d of the probability of zoning map. In order to forecast and take the appropriate countermeasures to minimize the thunderstorm disasters to the city's influence, while applications GM (1,1) model for Harbin, Daqing, Qiqihaer and other important cities in the next 50 years the number of thunderstorm days occurred ≥ 30 days of thunderstorms did more than forecast. Research obtained: (1)in 35 years, the average number of thunderstorm days in Heilongjiang province, central and south-central more less the eastern plains; (2)highest probability of thunderstorms across the province in the central and south central areas, the minimum value of the area was located in the east; (3)in the next 50 years, Haerbin, Qiqihaer, Mudanjiang, Daqing, great number of thunderstorm days occurred ≥ 30 years the number of multiple thunderstorms were 9, 7, 6, 4, 8 times, the probability of their values were 18%, 14%, 12%, 8%, 16%.