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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2012, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (17): 206-210.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2011-3827

所属专题： 耕地保护

• 三农问题研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

耕地赤字6000万公顷——中国的粮食危机及应对

郭庭双 聂伟 郭军   

  • 收稿日期:2011-12-19 修回日期:2012-04-12 出版日期:2012-06-15 发布日期:2012-06-15

Cultivated land deficit 60 million hm2——China’s food crisis and Counter-measures

  • Received:2011-12-19 Revised:2012-04-12 Online:2012-06-15 Published:2012-06-15

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摘要：

迄今为止，没有人说中国的粮食安全出了问题。政府有关部门以及农业专家一再宣称，中国成功地保持了粮食自给，守住了“自给率不低于95%”这条红线。然而笔者研究发现，我国粮食安全的红线其实早已失守，而且离红线越来越远。2010年粮食自给率连65%都不到，进口的粮油食品要5948万hm2（9亿亩）农田才能生产出来。也就是说，耕地赤字高达9亿亩，超过“三北”地区13个省（区）耕地总和！真是“不算不知道，一算吓一跳”。现在到了重新审视《谁来养活中国？》一书论点的时候了。

关键词: 转基因, 转基因

Abstract:

No one thinks that there are any trouble on food security in China so far. Some relevant officials departments and agricultural specialists have been repeatedly declaring that China has been keeping sufficient in food and keeping the redline of ‘self-supply rate no less than 95%’. But our research indicates that the redline of food security has fallen long ago. The food self-supply rate in 2010 was even less than 65% and all the imported food needs 59.48 million hm2 (0.9 billion Mu) cultivated land to produce. Therefore, cultivated land deficit has been up to 0.9 billion Mu, exceeding all the cultivated land in 13 provinces of ‘Three-North’ area. It gives us a start! It is time to reconsider the thesis of the book 《Who will feed China》