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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2013, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (26): 184-189.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2013-0197

所属专题： 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于GIS的广西暴雨灾害风险实时评估技术研究

孟翠丽 匡昭敏 李莉 王政锋 何立 黄伟圣   

  • 收稿日期:2013-01-18 修回日期:2013-03-11 出版日期:2013-09-15 发布日期:2013-09-15
  • 基金资助:
    十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目;十二五”国家科技计划项目;广西科学研究与技术开发计划项目;广西自然科学基金

GIS-based Research on the Real-time Risk Assessment of Storm in Guangxi

  • Received:2013-01-18 Revised:2013-03-11 Online:2013-09-15 Published:2013-09-15

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摘要： 为了科学应对广西暴雨灾害频发、影响日趋严重这一问题，选用广西自动站实时降雨量数据、历年暴雨灾情数据、广西社会经济数据及基础地理数据，采用主成分分析法、层次分析法等方法，结合GIS技术，研究了暴雨灾害危险度实时评估的技术方法，并基于暴雨灾害实时危险度、孕灾环境脆弱度、承灾体易损度和抗灾力等4个因子，构建了广西农业暴雨灾害风险度实时评估模型，选择2011年的一次暴雨过程对模型进行验证，验证结果表明：评估结果与实际灾情较为吻合，模型实践检验效果较好。

关键词: 序列分析, 序列分析

Abstract: For scientifically solving the problem that the serious influence caused by frequently happening storm disaster in Guangxi, based on the real time rainfall data from automatic weather station in Guangxi, the historical storm disastrous data, the socio-economic data and basic geographical data of Guangxi, by using principal component analysis method and analysis hierarchy process (AHP) and GIS technology, this paper has studied the method of the real-time risk assessment of storm disaster, real-time storm hazard risk evaluation model, circumstance sensitivity model, storm hazard vulnerability model, and resistance capacity model. As a result, the real-time risk evaluation of agricultural storm in Guangxi was constructed by comprehensive utilizing the four models, which was verified an effective model by the coincidence of the evaluation result and the actual disaster of one time storm process in 2011.