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中国农学通报 ›› 2014, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (20): 263-269.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2013-2150

所属专题: 农业气象

• 农业科技信息 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于信息扩散理论的重庆地区高温风险分析

吉莉 李强 陈欢   

  • 收稿日期:2013-08-09 修回日期:2013-08-31 出版日期:2014-07-15 发布日期:2014-07-15
  • 基金资助:
    重庆市气象局业务技术攻关项目 “北碚区煤矿安全气象保障技术研究” (ywgg-201217)。

High Temperature Risk Analysis in Chongqing Area Based on the Information Diffusion Theory

  • Received:2013-08-09 Revised:2013-08-31 Online:2014-07-15 Published:2014-07-15

摘要: 为了了解重庆地区的高温风险规律,减少该地区高温引起的灾害损失。利用重庆地区34个地面气象观测站的气温观测资料(1981—2010年),结合信息扩散理论模型,分析了重庆地区的高温风险及成因。结果显示:重庆地区的年平均最高气温、高温日数随时间呈现线性增加趋势;重庆有3个极端高温与高温日数易发高值区;且重庆地区4个区域的高温日数风险差异幅度较大,在高温度数风险概率研究中,重庆4个区域均在36℃时风险概率值达到最大值,黔江所代表区域具有较高的稳定性,高温事件发生的风险概率小;从高温灾害风险空间分布来看,随着高温等级的升高灾害发生的区域面积也相应地减小。基于此,为重庆防灾减灾提供理论依据和参考。

关键词: 生物信息学分析, 生物信息学分析

Abstract: In order to understand the high risk rules in Chongqing area, reducing the area of disaster losses caused by high temperature. Using the temperature data (1981-2010) in 34 ground meteorological observation stations in Chongqing area, combining the theory of information diffusion model, the author analyzed high temperature risk and the causes of the Chongqing area. The results showed that: the number of years the average maximum temperature, the high temperature days in Chongqing with time showed a linear increase trend; Chongqing had 3 extreme high temperature and high temperature days prone zone of high temperature; and4 regional Chongqing area number risk difference greatly, at high degrees of risk probability study, Chongqing 4 area at 36℃risk probability reached the maximum value stability, represented by the Qianjiang Region with a higher probability of risk, high temperature events; from the perspective of high temperature disaster risk distribution, with the area increased disaster grade of high temperature had also reduced accordingly. Based on this, it will provide the theoretical basis for disaster prevention and mitigation in Chongqing.