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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2014, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (28): 144-152.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2014-1383

所属专题： 园艺； 农业气象

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春季茶树冠层温度与气象因子的关系及预测

娄伟平,孙科,吉宗伟   

  1. 浙江省新昌县气象局,浙江省新昌县气象局,绍兴市气象局
  • 收稿日期:2014-05-14 修回日期:2014-05-14 接受日期:2014-09-05 出版日期:2014-10-15 发布日期:2014-10-15
  • 通讯作者: 娄伟平
  • 基金资助:
    浙江省科技厅项目“茶叶生态模式与气象灾害监测和防御技术应用研究”(2011C22082)

Relationship of Tea Tree Canopy Temperature and Meteorological Factors in Spring and Its Forecast

  • Received:2014-05-14 Revised:2014-05-14 Accepted:2014-09-05 Online:2014-10-15 Published:2014-10-15

摘要： 为开展利用气象资料进行春季茶叶霜冻灾害的评估工作，研究利用2009年和2010年茶树冠层温度观测资料和气象观测资料，分析了最低气温与茶树冠层最低温度差和天气类型、微气象因子的关系，建立了不同茶树冠层最低温度拟合模型，结合加密自动气象站资料，评估了霜冻过程茶树冠层最低温度的空间分布。结果表明：天气类型是影响最低气温与不同茶树冠层最低温度差的主要气象因子，最低气温与茶树上部冠层叶片最低温度差还受风、湿度等微气象因子的影响，微气象因子对最低气温与茶树内部冠层叶片最低温度差的影响较小。天气类型、微气象因子和最低气温与不同茶树冠层最低温度差的关系是非线性关系，采用支持向量机模型可取得较好拟合效果。同一类型茶树冠层，外部冠层最低温度拟合效果优于内部冠层。利用自动气象站资料、GIS技术、最低气温与不同茶树冠层最低温度差的拟合模型，实现茶叶霜冻空间分布的监测评估。

关键词: 模型, 模型

Abstract: In order to evaluate the spring tea frost disaster with meteorological data, tea tree canopy temperature observation data and the meteorological observation data of tea plantations in 2009 and 2010 were used to analyze the relations of the lowest temperature differences of the tea tree canopy, the weather patterns and the micro meteorological factors. A fitting model of different tea tree canopy temperatures was built to evaluate the spatial distribution of the lowest temperature of the tea tree canopy in the frosting process combined with the intensive automatic weather station data. The results showed: the weather type was the main factor that affected the lowest temperature difference between the lowest air temperature and the lowest temperature of the tea tree canopy, while the lowest difference was also affected by the wind, humidity and other micro meteorological factors, but the lowest temperature difference between the lowest air temperature and the lowest temperature of the internal leaves in the tea tree canopy was less affected. The relations among weather type, micro meteorological factors and the lowest temperature difference between the lowest air temperature and the lowest temperature of the tea tree canopy were non-linear, and the supporting vector machine model could achieve a better imitative effect. As for the same kind of tea tree canopy, the imitative effect of the lowest temperature in external canopy would be superior to that in the internal. The weather station data, GIS technology and the fitting model of the lowest temperature difference between the lowest air temperature and the lowest temperature of the tea tree canopy were utilized to evaluate the spatial distribution of the tea frosted.