关键词: 果实品质, 果实品质

Abstract: Based on the precipitation and air temperature data in Anhui Province from 1960 to 2012, this paper took methods such as linearity trend estimation, inverse distance weighted, correlation analysis and X² fitting inspection methods and so on to analyze spatial and temporal variations of climate and the influence of ENSO on climate change and drought and flood disasters in Anhui during the past 53 years. The results indicated that : (1) El Nino events and La Nina occurred 16 and 15 times, respectively, in the past 53 years, the El Nino events occurred mostly in spring and summer and ended in winter, while La Nina events occurred in summer and autumn, ended in spring and winter; (2) from the time, the precipitation in Anhui was increasing annually, the change of annual mean air temperature showed a statistically significant increasing trend, in the late 1990s warming trend was obvious; (3) from the space, the distribution characteristics of precipitation in the south of Anhui was more than that in the north; precipitation showed a trend of decrease in the north of the Huaihe river but a trend of increase in the south of the Huaihe river; the temperature was higher in southern mountain area and Dabieshan area; (4) El Nino event caused precipitation decrease and temperature increase, while La Nina event caused precipitation increase and temperature decrease, and had a certain degree of lagging; (5) El Nino and La Nina events had significant relationship with the drought and waterlog in Anhui Province, the drought and flood disaster occurred mostly in ENSO events years, the next year or the year before ENSO events, and the risk of drought was higher in the continuous El Nino years.