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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (8): 199-205.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb14110024

所属专题： 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

阜新地区暴雪预报方法研究

王宪彬,辛艳辉,陈艳秋,赵振宇   

  1. (辽宁省阜新市气象局,辽宁阜新 123000）
  • 收稿日期:2014-11-05 修回日期:2015-01-05 接受日期:2015-01-20 出版日期:2015-04-07 发布日期:2015-04-07
  • 通讯作者: 陈艳秋
  • 基金资助:
    财政部气象行业专项“东北地区设施农业生产专业天气预报技术研究”(GYHY201206024)。

A Study on Forecast Method of Snowstorm in Fuxin

Wang Xianbin, Xin Yanhui, Chen Yanqiu, Zhao Zhenyu   

  1. (Fuxin Bureau of Meteorology, Fuxin Liaoning 123000)
  • Received:2014-11-05 Revised:2015-01-05 Accepted:2015-01-20 Online:2015-04-07 Published:2015-04-07

摘要： 为了提高暴雪天气的预报水平和服务能力，为设施农业气象灾害监测预警提供参考，利用常规高空和地面资料、NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料，对1955—2013年59年的25次暴雪过程进行总结。结果表明：（1）阜新地区暴雪主要集中在10月—次年4月，其中3月的暴雪次数最多，其次为11月和4月；（2）暴雪的高空和地面天气系统清晰、明显和有规律，500 hPa高空图分为2脊1槽型和阶梯槽型，地面分别为华北气旋、蒙古气旋冷锋、江淮气旋或倒槽；（3）降水前建立的风速≥12 m/s的低空西南急流为暴雪的发生提供了动力和水汽条件；（4）选取对暴雪天气具有明显物理意义的Q-flux-div(850)、Q(850)、K、θse(500)、W(700)、Div(500~850)6个预报因子，建立了阜新地区暴雪预报方程，实现暴雪天气客观化预报。

关键词: 玉米, 玉米, 区域试验, 产量, 品种, GGE双标图

Abstract: The paper aims to improve the forecast ability of snowstorm and provide reference for weather disaster’s early warning which serves facility agriculture. The author summarized 25 snowstorm processes from 1955 to 2013 based on the conventional observation data and reanalysis data (horizontal resolution 1?×1?) from NCEP. The results showed that: (1) the time-space distribution of snowstorm was significant, focusing primarily on the period from October to April of the following year; (2) the style of 500 hPa was two-ridge-one-trough and ladder-groove, the style of surface weather situation was north-China cyclone, Mongolia cyclone, Changjiang-Huaihe cyclone or inverted trough, respectively; (3) a low-level jet was formed before snowfall and it offered dynamical condition and water vapor; (4) the author selected 6 forecast factors (moisture flux divergence, specific humidity at 850 hPa, K index, potential pseudo-equivalent temperature at 500 hPa, vertical velocity at 700 hPa and divergence between 500 and 850 hPa), which had apparently physical significance to snowstorm weather, to establish forecast equation of Fuxin and achieve objective forecast of snowstorm.