关键词: 气候变化, 气候变化, 热量资源, 积温, 终霜日

Abstract: In order to implement objective, real-time and dynamic monitoring and warning for waterlogging disasters of farmland in Jiangsu Province, according to the farmland water balance principles, meteorological and agro-meteorological disaster information gathered by national basic meteorological observation stations from 1961 to 2014, as well as soil moisture data from automatic observational stations were used to construct the meteorological monitoring and warning model for waterlogging disasters in Jiangsu Province. Meanwhile, the model provided an effective method for scientific prevention of waterlogging disasters by dynamically acquiring its occurrence time, range and intensity, as well as the development trend and persistent period. The forecasting accuracy could reach 97%, since the monitoring and early warning operational system was applied in daily work from June 2014. Particularly, the operational system had outstanding performance in dynamic monitoring and early warning for the development and progression of typical waterlogging disasters, such as persistent low temperature and rain in the summer of 2014 and continuous heavy rain in June 2015, by providing daily occurrence degrees for those areas having waterlogging disasters. Therefore, the monitoring and warning system had provided important references for the managing and producing departments to timely master disaster situations and make scientific responses.