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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2016, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (18): 183-197.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15110148

• 三农研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

人民币汇率升值对中国粮食安全影响的一般均衡金融模型分析

黄德林,肖敬亮,李向阳   

  1. (中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究,北京 100081）
  • 收稿日期:2015-11-28 修回日期:2016-06-12 接受日期:2016-06-06 出版日期:2016-06-28 发布日期:2016-06-28
  • 通讯作者: 黄德林
  • 基金资助:
    国家社科基金重大项目（2012第二批）“中国鲜活农产品价格形成、波动机制与宏观调控政策研究”(12&ZD048)的子课题“基于中国一般均衡模型分析的中国鲜活农产品价格形成、波动机制与政策研究”(12&ZD048-5)；“中国农业科学院科技创新工程”[05(ASTIP-IAED-2015-05)]。

Impact of Appreciation of RMB Exchange Rate on Chinese Food Security Based on CGE Financial Model

Huang Delin, Xiao Jingling, Li Xiangyang   

  1. (The Institute of Agricultural Economic and Development, Beijing 100081)
  • Received:2015-11-28 Revised:2016-06-12 Accepted:2016-06-06 Online:2016-06-28 Published:2016-06-28

PDF (PC)

359

摘要： 通过构建一般均衡金融模型，分析了汇率变化对中国粮食安全的影响。模拟结果显示，现有中国经济增长条件下，人民币升值5%、10%、20%，对中国经济增长产生了较为持久的负面影响。与工业部门一样，人民币升值对农业部门也产生了产出、就业、投资及产出价格下降的严重影响，这种影响关系到农产品生产和供给，与中国的粮食安全息息相关，自2005年以来，人民币实际升值22%，过去的几年中，除粮食生产外，中国农产品生产遭受诸多价格风险，理论上，隐藏在农产品价格风险背后的因素，人民币升值有一定的作用。所以，人民币升值进程中，必须密切关注中国的农产品生产特别是粮食生产的安全。

关键词: 生物质炭复混肥, 生物质炭复混肥, 小白菜, 樱桃萝卜, 硝酸盐, 产量

Abstract: This paper analyzed the Impact of RMB exchange rate changes on Chinese Food Security based on China general equilibrium financial model. The results show that Under existing conditions of China's economic growth, RMB appreciation of 5%, 10%, 20%, China's economic will suffer relatively long-lasting negative results. Same as the industrial sectors, RMB appreciation also generated seriously negative impact to the agriculture sector, such as decrease of product output, employment, investment and output prices. It endanger agricultural production and supply, has closely relationship with China's food security. In fact, since 2005, 22 percent of real appreciation of RMB has implemented. Over the past few years, in addition to grain production, China's agricultural production suffered a lot of price risk, in theory, behind the price risk, May be the result of the appreciation of RMB, Therefore, in the RMB appreciation process, we must pay close attention to China's agricultural production, especially grain production safety.