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中国农学通报 ›› 2016, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (16): 117-122.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15120012

所属专题: 资源与环境 耕地保护

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于“压力-状态-响应”模型的河南省耕地资源可持续性研究

任远辉,郭 雯,陈伟强,马月红   

  1. (河南农业大学资源与环境学院,郑州 450002)
  • 收稿日期:2015-12-02 修回日期:2016-01-14 接受日期:2016-01-25 出版日期:2016-06-17 发布日期:2016-06-17
  • 通讯作者: 陈伟强
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目“基于经济梯度推移的农村居民点演变分异与分类调控研究”(41501189)。

Sustainability of Cultivated Land Resources in Henan Province:

Based on Pressure-State-Response Model   

  1. Ren Yuanhui, Guo Wen, Chen Weiqiang, Ma Yuehong(College of Resources and Environment Sciences, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002)
  • Received:2015-12-02 Revised:2016-01-14 Accepted:2016-01-25 Online:2016-06-17 Published:2016-06-17

摘要: 为全面反映河南省耕地资源的可持续发展情况,从多方面挖掘影响河南省耕地资源可持续利用的影响因素,基于“压力-状态-响应”模型,选取了河南省2004—2013年的耕地及与耕地有关的数据,提取16项指标,采用多因素综合评价法,综合分析河南省历年来的耕地资源利用可持续性,然后利用线性回归对截至2020年的河南省耕地利用的可持续性进行预测。结果表明:压力指数10年来变化幅度最大,升降不定,状态指数和响应指数分值10年来呈现上升趋势。河南省耕地资源综合利用水平在近10年内稳定在0.6~0.8分之间,受压力指数和状态指数影响较大,耕地资源利用态势良好。预测结果显示截止到2020年,河南省耕地资源的可持续性呈现逐年上升态势,且2020年综合分值较2013年上涨了0.14,达到较高的可持续利用水准。

关键词: 甘蓝, 甘蓝, 灌溉模式, 水氮利用, 氮素运移

Abstract: In order to fully reflect the sustainable development situation of cultivated land resources in Henan Province, influencing factors of sustainable utilization of cultivated land resource were explored. Based on the Pressure-State-Response model, the data of cultivated land in Henan Province from 2004 to 2013 were selected and 16 indicators were extracted to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the sustainability of cultivated land resources in Henan Province using multi-factor comprehensive evaluation method. Then linear regression model was used to forecast the sustainability in the next few years. The results showed that the pressure index had the biggest change during the 10 years. The state index and the response index showed a rising trend during the 10 years. The comprehensive utilization score of cultivated land resources in Henan Province in the 10 years was 0.6-0.8, and it was mainly affected by the pressure index and the state index. The prediction results showed that the sustainability of cultivated land resources in Henan Province would have a rising trend up to 2020, and in 2020 the comprehensive score would increase by 0.14 in comparing with that of 2013 and reach a high level of sustainable utilization.

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