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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2017, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (22): 101-106.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb16080021

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

山西省60 min年最大降水空间分布及重现期估算

王振华,贺洁颖   

  1. 山西省气象科学研究所,山西省气象科学研究所
  • 收稿日期:2016-08-04 修回日期:2016-12-22 接受日期:2016-12-23 出版日期:2017-08-21 发布日期:2017-08-21
  • 通讯作者: 王振华
  • 基金资助:
    中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用基金(CMAGJ2013M06)。

The 60 min Maximum Precipitation in Shanxi: Spatial Distribution and Return Period Estimation

  • Received:2016-08-04 Revised:2016-12-22 Accepted:2016-12-23 Online:2017-08-21 Published:2017-08-21

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摘要： 为了研究全球气候变化背景下极端降雨规律，基于山西省1981—2012年60 min最大降雨量资料，利用极值分析、Gumbel分布函数拟合等方法，笔者分析研究了山西省60 min最大降雨量空间分布特征及50年、100年重现期估算等问题。结果表明：山西省最大降水概率分布为偏态铃形；极值空间分布特征与地理位置、地形关系密切；60 min最大雨量50、100年重现期估算值的空间分布形态具有一致性，高值区主要在山西省东南部。

关键词: 鸡, 鸡, 柔嫩艾美耳球虫, 特异性抗体, EtMIC4-N蛋白, BAS-ELISA

Abstract: The paper aims to study the rules of the extreme precipitation events under global climate change. Based on the 60 min maximum precipitation data in Shanxi from 1981 to 2012, the authors analyzed the spatial distribution characteristics of the 60 min maximum precipitation and return period estimation for 50 or 100 years in Shanxi by extreme value analysis, Gumbel distribution function fitting and other methods. The results showed that: the probability distribution of the maximum precipitation in Shanxi was skewed bell-shaped; the spatial distribution characteristics of the 60 min maximum precipitation was closely related to the geographic location and terrain; and the estimated value of 50-year return period of the 60 min maximum precipitation showed high consistence with that of 100-year return period in their spatial distribution patterns; the maximum value areas were mainly distributed in southeastern Shanxi.