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中国农学通报 ›› 2018, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (2): 98-106.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb17090148

所属专题: 耕地保护

• 工程 机械 水利 装备 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于系统动力学的土地整理项目效益后评价

李梦娜,刘 琳,张永芳,刘 蕾,武彦斌   

  1. 河北经贸大学管理科学与工程学院131,河北工程技术学校,河北经贸大学公共管理学院,河北经贸大学公共管理学院,河北经贸大学管理科学与工程学院138
  • 收稿日期:2017-09-27 修回日期:2017-10-16 接受日期:2017-10-25 出版日期:2018-01-23 发布日期:2018-01-23
  • 通讯作者: 武彦斌
  • 基金资助:
    河北省社会科学基金项目“基于景观格局变化的区域土地整理项目时空配置”(HB14GL052)。

Benefit Post-evaluation of Land Consolidation Project Based on System Dynamics

  • Received:2017-09-27 Revised:2017-10-16 Accepted:2017-10-25 Online:2018-01-23 Published:2018-01-23

摘要: [目的]现如今以新增耕地为单一目标的土地整理工作难以再适应综合整治阶段的各项需求。为了进一步完善土地整理项目效益评价理论、内容和方法,以河北省沧州市马厂镇的土地整理项目为研究对象,[方法]应用系统动力学原理,基于Vensim 软件平台构建土地整理项目效益后评价系统动力学模型。[结果]研究表明:历史数据与仿真数据的相对误差控制在5%以内;研究区的粮食产值、人均收入、就业人数、公众满意度等指标在今后的十年内呈现稳步提升的趋势,但生物多样性和景观多样性在相当长一段时间内出现下降趋势。[结论]所构建的系统动力学模型在结构和功能上通过了有效性和稳定性的检验,能够有效预测各效益指标在今后中长期内的发展变化趋势。土地整理项目实施后,其经济效益和社会效益显著,生态环境得到一定的改善,但是不可避免地造成生物多样性和景观多样性下降。

关键词: 油梨, 油梨, 生物学特性, 栽培技术

Abstract: Land consolidation with a single target of new cultivated land is difficult to meet requirements of comprehensive remediation phase. To further improve the theory, content and method of benefit evaluation of land consolidation project, the authors took the land consolidation project in Machang Town of Cangzhou, Hebei as the research object, based on the principle of system dynamics, constructed the dynamic model of land consolidation system with software platform by Vensim. The results showed that the relative error of historical data and simulation data were controlled within 5%; the index of food production, per capita income, employment number, public satisfaction and other indicators in the study area would have a trend of steady improvement over the next ten years, however, the landscape diversity and biodiversity would decrease for a long time. The simulation results showed that the system dynamics model passed the test of validity and stability on the structure and function, which could effectively predict the development trend of various benefit indexes in the medium and long term. After the implementation of land consolidation project in the research area, the economic and social benefits were significant and the ecological environment was improved, but there existed inevitably negative impacts on ecological indicators such as biodiversity and landscape diversity.

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